Overview
Chad is at a tumultuous political moment. After transitional President Mahamat Déby raised expectations that he would steer away from the authoritarianism that charac- terised his father’s 30-year rule, he has tightened his grip on power. A brutal crack- down on protesters on 20 October has chilled hopes for democratisation while the country looks toward elections in 2024. As Chad navigates this challenging time, social media is set to play an important role. With restrictions having eased in recent years, online platforms show great potential to help overcome tenacious barriers to citizens’ participation in Chadian politics. Yet social media activity also mirrors social and political divisions, and could accelerate grievance and violence. As the transition proceeds, Chadian authorities should keep the internet free and open; donors should support training for influencers to discourage online disinformation, hate speech and incitement; social media companies should monitor and moderate such content; and influencers should follow best practices. Donors should also help Chad foster a professional, independent media.
Following promising early steps, Chad’s political transition has taken a worrying turn. After his father was killed in a clash with rebels in April 2021, General Mahamat Déby seized power as the head of a transitional military council, putting the state on what was supposed to be an eighteen-month path to civilian government. At first, many found reason to hope that the country would find its way toward more democratic and inclusive governance without too much turmoil. Negotiations between the junta and the historical opposition led to several activists and armed group leaders return- ing to Chad after years of exile. When transitional authorities launched a long-awaited national dialogue on 20 August 2022, however, the main rebel groups, opposition parties and civil society organisations refused to participate, frustrated by, among other things, the military’s reluctance to commit to returning power to civilians.
Tensions boiled over when the national dialogue ended in early October. Its con- clusions extended the transition (which was supposed to be coming to an end that month) for another two years, and declared junta members, including Déby, eligible to run in the next national elections – now scheduled for 2024. They also called for dissolution of the transitional military council and for Déby to become transitional president. These decisions enraged many Chadians, who see them as a power grab by the former president’s son and oppose what they worry could become a dynastic succession. Thousands took to the streets to protest on 20 October, triggering a brutal response. Calling the protest an armed insurrection, the authorities brought it to heel with considerable force – according to government figures killing at least 50 people, wounding roughly 300 and arresting at least 600 – while also shutting down internet access in the political opposition’s strongholds in the capital N’Djamena. The resulting fear and distrust are likely to hang over the next phase of the transition.
As Chad’s political elites and public navigate what has become an increasingly fraught period, the country’s social media voices are likely to play a growing role –for good but also, potentially, for ill. Analysis of social media from February through June shows that it has brought both large benefits and significant risks. Online plat- forms boost citizens’ participation in politics and provide a forum for them to encour- age the transfer of political power to civilians through fresh elections. But, as Crisis Group has documented, posts have also led to direct threats, played up ethnic divides and fuelled civil unrest, often through the use of deliberately misleading information – ie, disinformation.
With social media still young in Chad, its most influential users can play a con- structive role in shaping the medium. National and international actors should work together to promote a better understanding among the internet’s most prominent Chadian voices of best practices for political discourse, and in particular of steps they can take to reduce the risk of spurring further violence. Through training programs, they should encourage those influencers who are willing to listen to use their posi- tion to prevent the diffusion of disinformation, hate speech and incitement to violence online. The transitional government should refrain from internet cutoffs while making the institutions responsible for digital security independent and shifting their mandate to focus on promotion of best practices. Social media companies should continue to improve fact checking capacity and algorithms that reduce the visibility of posts con- taining polarising content.
Finally, while influencers play an important role in shaping the country’s political discourse and divides, donors should also focus on supporting the emergence of local, professional, independent journalistic outlets. This goal is perhaps aspirational, given the political climate, but it is still worth pursuing. A vibrant professional press can act as both a reliable source of information for citizens and a watchdog for the misuse of social media by government as well as influencers.
