The race is on for the US to regain its status quo as the world leader and push out China with the showdown for this conflict that appears to be in Africa. During the US-Africa Leaders Summit last week, US President Joe Biden expressed his newfound interest in African countries. He asserted that “The United States is all in on Africa’s influence” which has been perceived as an attempt by Biden to re-assert US influence in Africa in order to counter growing Chinese involvement. However, given the entrenchment of Chinese influence in Africa including their techniques of dept-trap diplomacy, the US may struggle to rival Chinese influence.
According to the China Africa Research Initiative at Johns Hopkins University, China has lent over $143 billion to African countries since 2000. While this has helped finance infrastructure projects and stimulate economic growth, it has also left some African countries with significant debt burdens. For example, Zambia’s debt to China currently exceeds its annual economic output, and the country is at risk of defaulting on its loans. This has raised concerns about the ability of African countries to repay their loans and the potential for them to fall into a cycle of debt and dependency on China.
Chinese debt-trap diplomacy has also somewhat compromised the sovereignty of African countries. When countries take on significant debt, they may be more vulnerable to pressure from their creditors. This could lead to situations where African countries are forced to make policy decisions that align with the interests of China rather than their own citizens. For example, there have been concerns about the terms of some of China’s loans to African countries, including the inclusion of secrecy clauses that make it difficult to assess their impact or hold China accountable for any negative consequences.
The US will likely struggle to reassert influence in Africa given the breadth of Chinese influence. As China and Russia have become major players in Africa, it has displaced other countries that previously had significant investments and influence on the continent such as the US. The US which has truthfully been absent from Africa for some time now appears to be surprised by growing Chinese and Russian influence in the region. But things will not be easy for Biden who is likely to face competition from China as it seeks to reinsert itself into Africa after a period of declining influence on the continent.
The door was left open for Russia and China to expand their influence in the region after the breakdown of US-Africa relations by former US President Donald Trump and his belittling view of the African world. As a result, the US may not have the resources nor political will to devote significant attention and resources in the hopes of reengaging with Africa. Ultimately, Biden will need to tread carefully and take small steps in addressing these issues.
Biden recently promised Africa $55 billion of aid over the next three years. But this offer is limited in its reach and will not be enough for Africa to push out China and Russia. This just goes to show that Biden’s statement about being ‘all in’ on Africa is in fact conflated, possibly due to the realisation that the US will struggle to compete with Russia and China in the region beyond limited aid deliveries.
Biden’s desire for a strategic relationship with Africa is not surprising given that Africa has become a key geopolitical player particularly due to their oil and gas reserves as countries try to find alternatives to Russian gas. However, Biden will struggle to win back influence in the region given that China has since developed stronger ties with the continent.
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